Idle speculation on TV cancellations

[ghost2]

As usual, I've been following the TV ratings and am speculating on which shows will survive to another season. Obviously, Desperate Housewives and the like are more than safe. But what about Eleventh Hour, Life, Dollhouse, etc.? I've made some educated guesses about their fates, which should become known for sure no later than next month, when the networks hold their advertising upfront presentations.


ABC
Castle: Will it be back? Yes. 66% chance to return. Despite the presence of Susan Sullivan, I don't like this show. I think it's predictable hackwork with lame plots and no chemistry between the leads. But, while ratings haven't been great, it's performed the best of ABC's weak crop of midseason replacements. May 17 update: RENEWED

Cupid: no. 10% chance. Why even bother with a remake? It looks like a lot of people agree with me. Ironically, I prefer this version to the original but I wouldn't miss it if it disappeared now. May update: CANCELLED

Too early to tell: The Unusuals. Has aired one episode, which performed fairly poorly. May 17 update: CANCELLED


CBS
The Unit: no. 20% chance. Well, CBS has to cancel something, and the weakest performers are on the chopping block. You know they want to make room for that NCIS spinoff. May update: CANCELLED

Eleventh Hour: yes. 51% chance. Such a toss-up. I like this series and want it to survive. The main problem is that its viewership in the post-CSI slot couldn't have been what CBS hoped for. OTOH, it must be fairly cheap to produce and has some growth potential. Fingers crossed. May update: CANCELLED

Cold Case: yes. 60% chance. Increasingly expensive to produce (employees want pay raises, not cuts, as time goes by), and one of CBS's lesser performers in the 18-49 age group. It depends on how many shows they want to cancel. May 17 update: RENEWED

Without a Trace: no. 40% chance. In the same boat as Cold Case. I rather arbitrarily gave it a smaller chance of survival because it has a larger main cast that must command higher total salaries. I could easily be wrong, though. May update: CANCELLED

Too early to tell: Harper's Island. So far has aired one episode, which didn't do that well. May update: CANCELLED


The CW
Reaper: no. 25% chance. It's holding up well against American Idol and way outperforming what Privileged did on the same night against weaker competition, but doesn't fit into the overall CW plan. May update: CANCELLED

Privileged: no. 12.5% chance. It's the sort of show the CW wants to keep around. The numbers just don't justify it. May update: CANCELLED


Fox
Sarah Connor Chronicles: no. 5% chance. Another one that I watch. What happens to a show that carries about 12 million viewers at its peak, but plummets to a puny 3.5 million barely a year later? It dies. This series was pulling cancel-worthy numbers on Monday night, and got way worse when it switched to Friday. (ETA: Actually, the show debuted with around 18 million viewers, so it's dropped even more horrifically than I had been thinking.) May 17 update: CANCELLED

Dollhouse: no. 33% chance. Debuted okay but couldn't hold on. Fine with me if it goes. I don't like the premise, the bad acting, the sexism, the crappy writing, anything about it. May 17 update: RENEWED


NBC
Chuck: yes. 70% chance. The people at NBC really like this show, and they can't cancel everything. Its ratings are pretty average but it's faced tough competition in recent months. May 17 update: RENEWED

Life: no. 2% chance. It's one of the few police shows I like, but the ratings are horrible and if I had to make the decision, I'd cancel it. It's that dire. May 17 update: CANCELLED

Knight Rider: no. 2% chance. Poor performances all season. May 17 update: CANCELLED

Medium: yes. 75% chance. I see it coming back at midseason again. I'm an occasional viewer and would like to see it return. May update: CANCELLED by NBC, but RENEWED by CBS. Will air on CBS upon its return.

Kings: no. 1% chance. Very expensive to produce, has bombed out on Sunday night, now being moved to the dead zone of Saturday. I'll keep watching but barring a miracle, this one just isn't going to make it. May update: CANCELLED

Law & Order: yes. 66% chance. Viewership is down but NBC could bring it back and bill next season as being the final one, resulting in a ratings bump . It worked for ER. May update: RENEWED

Too early to tell: Southland. The pilot had solid ratings, so I'd be cautiously optimistic about its chances. NBC needs to take something positive out of this season. May 17 update: RENEWED

Comments

[ladymalchav.livejournal.com]

What do you think about Better Off Ted? I've been watching it. but have yet to form an opinion on weather I'd miss it.

[ghost2.livejournal.com]

I haven't seen Better Off Ted but I expect it to be cancelled. It's not doing that well. OTOH, every year a few shows get surprise renewals, so it could be back in the fall.